- Active residences (current inventory) – Last month I wrote, “The number of listings over the past three months has been in a very tight range.” Since then, we broke out of that range to the upside and now have 348 homes on the market as of April 7. 2024. It is not a large increase but it is a hopeful sign of more inventory as we move deeper into the active period in the market. Last year, we hit a low in inventory in late April and from there rose for the next six months.
- Median prices. The 3-month median price for March continued to decline. It fell from $419,000 to $415,000. Not a large decline, but the down trend since July, 2023 continues. However, we are still above the price low of February last year which was $410,000. I still count that as a positive sign. The 12-month median price for March declined from $435,000 to $430,000 and we are now at the same price as June of 2022. The 4.6% appreciation from that date to the market high has evaporated.
- Median DOM (days on market–the time period where 50% of the homes leave the market for homes that sold over the past 30 days.) The Days on Market shot higher for the month of February and into early March but has now declined as rapidly as it rose. It is currently at 17 and we will most likely see lower numbers in the months ahead. The range for the past 30 days is 17 to 57. I wrote last month that, “This should peak soon and turn down as the buying season heats up.” We are starting to get warm.
- Number of pendings last 30 days close-up. The number of pendings continued to climb into March and reached a high of 114. However, since then, they have dropped back to 100 pendings as of April 7, 2024. Last year at this same time, a similar decline took place (See red arrow on the chart). After that decline, the number of pendings rose to higher numbers into mid-year. I would expect the same thing to take place this year.
- Homes sold for 12 Consecutive Months. Last month I noted that, “For the first time in nearly three years, we have three consecutive months where the number of homes sold is higher than the previous month.” Unfortunately, that change in trend stalled this month and we fell back to 975 homes sold for the past 12 months. We are now in a range between 958 and 994. My hope is that we break out to the upside and continue to climb.
- List price compared to sold price. Both median list price and median sales price declined for the month of March from the values of February. Last year around this time, (early in the buying season) both of them turned up and climbed into August. I anticipate that the same thing will happen this year due to the pressure of the buying season.
Here is my overview of Charles’ overview of the Charts —
- Active Homes are Increasing (By ~15) to 348 on the Market. It is April, so I expect this trend to continue a bit more sharply as we move forward.
- Back to June 2022 Median Sold Home Pricing. I am still seeing desirable homes have multiple offers, there are buyers on the sidelines waiting for specific properties.
- Median Days on the Market before accepting an offer is dropping, now down to 17. This shows a typical Spring Trend as buyers are becoming more active
- Pending Homes in the last 30 Days went from 114 to 100, but as Charles points out, this small drop happened last year, and from April shot significantly higher
- Homes Sold in the Last 12 Months- A slight drop, however, this number should increase slightly as we head to summer. I expect a more active market.. This would average 81 Homes Sold per month, as opposed to Pre-Pandemic steady of ~110 Homes Sold Per Month
It appears prices are coming down steadily, as Sellers are listing homes higher than they are selling for. What this tells me is that expectations of Sellers are being managed, as interest rates are causing mortgages to be more expensive than Buyers are willing to pay.
All this to be said- If there is a significant adjustment to interest rates, the charts will all be significantly affected!!
Humble Brag-
Dane Golfed Bandon Dunes for the first time and made an Eagle on 18 at Sheep Ranch.
Dane’s Upcoming Predictions;
Ohtani gets banned. Dodgers lose ~100 games.
Webb wins Cy Young.
Cal Poly Fall Attendance surpasses 7,500 (up ~ 1,500 students)
Interest Rates won’t significantly drop Q2 (Below 6%). But I sure hope they do
Roto-Rooter has a new Septic Guy, Brad! Fun times ahead as we gear up to rebrand our Septic Division to become #2 in the #2 business… aim small, miss small.
Give me all your feedback!
-Dane
