Charles’ Charts

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1a.– Active residences (current inventory) – The current inventory has remained in a small range since the July 23rd high. That equates to the same number of homes being sold as those coming on the market over this period. If we are back into our normal market cycle, we should see lower inventory as we come into the end of the year, though.

2a. – Median prices. The three month median moving average (red dotted line) reveals the leading edge of market prices. The three month median price dropped in price this month (October) from the previous month by $13,352 (2.85%). The market appears to be cooling off. This price is under the prices of the previous three months. Last month I wrote, “I would imagine that most of us think that this (rising prices) can’t last and at some point we will be right but who can tell us when?” Well, after last months’ update, I received an email from a seasoned agent who predicted that we would be seeing lower prices starting this month and she was spot on. Good call, Felicia! As you look back over the past few years, there have been other times when the 3 month median price dipped but it didn’t stay down long. We will see if this time it’s different and we enter into a correction of some sort. Stay tuned. Although the 12 month median average rose over the previous month, its rate of increase slowed.

4. – Median DOM (days on market) for homes that sold over the past 30 days. Days on the market (DOM) is slowly creeping higher and recently rose to 24 days and has remained in the 16 to 24 range now for a month from a range of 15-20 last month. Last month I wrote, “The number may not be as important as the fact that there has been a change in trend. I would suspect that it will continue now to rise as we move into the winter months.” Seems that we have moved back into the seasonal ups and downs as displayed in previous years. 

6 . – Number of homes that went pending in the past 30 days.  Last month I wrote, “After peaking in April, the number of homes that went pending over a 30-day period bounced up and down and up into August but did not reach a new high. Since then we have declined lower which is typical for the end of the year. We should see even lower numbers into the end of the year.” Pending numbers continue to drift lower. These often bottom in January and start to climb again into mid-year.

9. – Homes sold for 12 consecutive months. As the number of pending homes decreases, it translates into a lower number of homes sold. We continue to fall away each month but the bottom should be in early Spring, if we are back into a normal cycle.

11. – List price compared to sold price.  For the second month in a row the 3-month median sales price is less than the 3-month median list price. Has the trend started where the sales price will now continue to be less than the list price? If so, this chart will lose its charm as we go back to normal.