We’re feeling a market slow-down, Chart #6 shows we’re likely heading towards a January-low for the number of Homes Pending.
Last year between December and January for a 30 Day period, there was an all-time low of 40 Homes Pending during that time. Compared to this year’s high number of over 120 Homes Pending in a 30 Day period.
Chart #9 shows the number of Home Sold in a 12 Month Period. In the last 12 months there have been 989 Homes Sold.
My expectations in the next 6 months is to see that number reduce, with interest rates staying high..
Hope all is well, let me know if you have specific questions about the charts or the market as a whole :)
-Dane
Below are the recently updated real estate trend charts. The monthly charts are updated through the end of September, 2023. The rest are date stamped with the day they were updated.
- 1a. – Active residences (current inventory) – The number of homes on the market for the month of September rose over that of August. On the day the charts were updated there were 365 in August and 403 in September. That is a 10.4% increase. It would be unusual for this upward trend to continue much longer because the normal year-end trend is for fewer homes to come to market from October through the end of December. However, with interest rates continuing to rise and fewer sales taking place, this trend could change and the number of homes continue to rise. That would mean more choices for buyers. What else might it mean?
- Chart 1a click to view
- 2a.–Median prices. The upward movement in the 3-month median price stalled in August at a price of $445,000 remaining the same as that of July. I mentioned last month that “The market appears to have hit a bit of a headwind.” Well that headwind caused the September 3-month median price to decrease to $435,000 and drop below the 12-month median price. When that happened in November of last year, prices continued to fall for a couple more months. We are still facing that headwind and the market may be signaling a drift lower in price into the end of the year.
- Chart 2a click to view
- 4.–Median DOM (days on market -the time period where 50% of the homes leave the market for homes that sold over the past 30 days.) We are seeing normal seasonal market behavior as “days on market” continue to climb as we end the selling season. The previous 30-day period was 10-16 DOM, the most current 30-day period is 15-21 DOM. This doesn’t move very fast but the upper end of this range is double where it was in June and July.
- Chart 4 click to view
- – Number of pendings last 30 days close-up. The high for the number of pendings over a 30 day period reached 121 on Aug 9th and has fallen to 77 as of Oct 1. This is the third year in a row where the high of this season in pendings is lower than the previous season. Notice that the lows for the past four seasons were lower each successive year. If that trend continues, we may see the low of this season under 40 homes pended in a 30-day period. That is not a favorable trend!
Chart 6 click to view - – Homes sold for 12 Consecutive Months. Last month I wrote, “The number of homes sold for a 12-month period leveled out for two months (June had 1012 and July had 1013). But it was short-lived because August dropped through the 1000 mark to sit now at 989.” Our descent in the number of homes sold for a 12-month period was again slowed with September’s number coming in at 989, the same as August. With our pendings continuing to decrease, I don’t think we have hit bottom yet, though, in annualized sales numbers.
Chart 9 click to view
11.–List price compared to sold price. The 3-month median sales price decreased this month but the median list price did not. It has held steady for five of the last six months. Sellers appear to be holding the line for now on their prices. If the headwind that has come against the 3-month median sales price continues, we may see the list price decrease also. Sellers will not be able to hold out indefinitely. Chart 11 click to view
